Gulf States' Iran Strategy: MBS's Calls to Trump and Avoidance of Direct Confrontation

A Multifaceted Gulf Strategy in the Face of Regional Tensions

The Middle East region is experiencing heightened anticipation and growing concern as the ongoing conflict casts a long shadow over the relationships of regional and international powers. Amidst these developments, information has emerged, revealing complex dynamics in Gulf decision-making, particularly concerning dealings with Iran. Reports indicate that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has played a pivotal role in shaping this strategy, seeking to urge the former US administration to adopt a more stringent approach towards Tehran.

Secret Communications and Persistent Pressure

According to a recent report published by The New York Times, the Saudi Crown Prince engaged in frequent phone calls with former US President Donald Trump during the war. In these conversations, Prince Mohammed bin Salman advised Trump to maintain military and economic pressure on Iran. These calls do not represent a sudden shift in Saudi foreign policy but rather a continuation of an established approach championed by the late King Abdullah, who believed in the necessity of "cutting off the snake's head" to neutralize Iranian threats. The roots of these recommendations can be traced back to leaked diplomatic cables in 2010, which exposed pressure exerted by Gulf leaders on the United States to take more decisive action against Iran's nuclear program.

Towards Confrontation or Caution?

Concurrently, other reports have indicated a different strategic pattern. Al Arabiya television reported a meeting between the Saudi Crown Prince and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan on Monday. This meeting has sparked questions about the extent to which Gulf states are genuinely seeking to avoid direct confrontation with Iran. In a joint statement, both leaders affirmed that "the continuous aggressions carried out by Iran against the GCC countries represent a dangerous escalation that threatens regional security and stability." They added that the GCC states would continue to defend their territories and utilize all available resources to support regional security and maintain stability.

A Cautious Policy Amidst Escalation

Despite the war having raged for two weeks, with Iran launching over 2,000 missiles and drones towards neighboring countries, the Gulf states have not yet initiated an open retaliatory strike against Iran. This hesitation stems from several reasons, most notably the concern over "post-war scenarios." Gulf sources, cited by The Jerusalem Post, suggest that the lack of clearly attributable attacks is partly due to the fear of significant Iranian escalation, including the expansion of targets for missiles and drones.

Consequently, Gulf states are currently pursuing a cautious strategy. They support efforts to contain Iranian influence while simultaneously avoiding direct involvement in the conflict. However, the message conveyed by the Saudi Crown Prince to Washington suggests that at least some regional leaders still believe that sustained military pressure on Tehran remains the most effective method for weakening the Iranian regime. This delicate balance between caution and continued pressure poses the greatest challenge to achieving lasting security and stability in the region.