ASML Earnings Preview: Can EUV Orders Justify the Stock’s AI Premium?

Key Takeaways

• ASML will release its third-quarter results on October 14, with analysts expecting revenue of approximately €11.7 billion and strong growth in earnings.
• The company previously guided for quarterly revenue of €11 billion to €12 billion and a gross margin between 55% and 57%.
• Net bookings and the proportion attributable to EUV systems may be more important than reported revenue because they indicate chipmakers’ spending plans for 2027 and 2028.
• AI-related demand has nearly filled ASML’s 2027 EUV capacity, but export restrictions, weaker Chinese sales and elevated valuation expectations remain important risks.

ASML Holding will report third-quarter earnings on Wednesday, October 14, giving investors a critical look at whether demand for the company’s advanced lithography systems remains strong enough to support its premium valuation.

The Dutch semiconductor-equipment company has become one of the largest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom. Its extreme ultraviolet lithography machines are essential for manufacturing the most advanced processors produced by TSMC, Samsung and Intel.

ASML’s US-listed shares finished Friday at approximately $1,780 after gaining 0.6%. The stock has risen sharply as semiconductor manufacturers expanded capacity for AI accelerators, high-bandwidth memory and advanced logic chips.

The challenge is that the market already expects exceptional growth. Reported revenue will matter, but ASML’s order intake and guidance for 2027 could have an even greater influence on the stock’s post-earnings direction.

When Will ASML Report Q3 Earnings?

ASML will release its third-quarter results at 7:00 a.m. Central European Time on Wednesday, October 14. Management will hold a 60-minute investor call at 3:00 p.m. CET.

The report will arrive before the US stock market opens and on the same day as the September US Consumer Price Index. That combination could produce significant volatility in ASML shares, with earnings driving company-specific expectations and CPI affecting Treasury yields and technology-sector valuations.

ASML Q3 Earnings Expectations

ASML previously forecast third-quarter revenue between €11 billion and €12 billion, representing a substantial sequential increase from €9.33 billion in the second quarter.

Market estimates point to revenue of approximately €11.66 billion, or roughly $13.2 billion at recent exchange rates. Consensus estimates for the US-listed shares place earnings near $12.47 per share, although figures vary between providers because ASML reports its results in euros.

ASML expects Installed Base Management revenue, which includes service and equipment upgrades, to reach approximately €2.9 billion. This recurring business is important because its margins can exceed those generated by new systems and it benefits from the expanding number of ASML machines operating at customer factories.

EUV Bookings May Matter More Than Revenue

Quarterly revenue largely reflects equipment that was ordered months or years earlier. Net bookings provide a more forward-looking view of demand and may therefore determine whether investors view the report as strong or disappointing.

ASML is the only company capable of producing EUV lithography systems at commercial scale. These machines use extremely short wavelengths of light to print the intricate patterns required for advanced semiconductors.

Low-NA EUV systems are already essential for leading-edge logic chips and advanced memory. ASML’s newer High-NA EUV platform is designed to support smaller, denser and more powerful chips at future manufacturing nodes.

Demand is currently being driven by several sources:

• TSMC is expanding capacity for AI processors designed by Nvidia, AMD and custom-chip developers.
• Samsung and SK Hynix are investing in advanced memory required for AI data centers.
• Intel is introducing High-NA EUV into selected advanced manufacturing processes.
• Cloud companies are financing additional foundry capacity for custom AI accelerators.
• Chipmakers are upgrading existing machines to increase productivity and improve yields.

ASML said in July that customer commitments were strengthening across its product portfolio and that order intake had remained exceptionally strong during the first half of 2026.

A third-quarter increase in EUV bookings would reinforce the argument that AI infrastructure investment is translating into long-term equipment demand rather than a temporary surge in orders.

A weaker booking figure would not necessarily indicate collapsing demand because orders can be uneven from one quarter to another. However, cautious customer commentary or delays in 2027 capacity plans would raise more substantial concerns.

ASML Raised Its Full-Year Outlook After a Strong Q2

ASML reported second-quarter revenue of €9.33 billion, above its guidance, while net income reached €2.92 billion. Earnings were €7.59 per share.

The company sold 86 new lithography systems and five used systems during the quarter. Installed Base Management revenue reached €2.76 billion, exceeding management’s forecast and helping the gross margin rise to 54%.

Following those results, ASML increased its full-year revenue forecast to between €43 billion and €45 billion. It also raised its expected annual gross margin to between 54% and 56%.

The updated outlook was substantially above the approximately €39.6 billion analysts had expected before the announcement. Management attributed the increase to accelerating investment in advanced logic and memory capacity.

For the third quarter, investors will examine whether ASML maintains that guidance or raises it again. An increase in the lower end of the annual revenue range would be especially supportive because it would imply strong fourth-quarter shipments and service revenue.

High-NA EUV Is Moving Closer to Commercial Production

High-NA EUV represents one of the most important components of ASML’s long-term growth case.

The next-generation machines provide higher resolution than the existing EUV platform, potentially reducing the number of production steps required to manufacture advanced chips. Each system can cost as much as $400 million, making High-NA adoption important for both revenue growth and average selling prices.

ASML reached a significant milestone during the second quarter when Intel qualified High-NA EUV for selected Intel 18A product layers. The company said its installed fleet was supporting customer development while additional production applications were being prepared.

Investors will want updates on:

• The number of High-NA systems shipped and recognized as revenue
• Adoption timelines at TSMC, Intel and Samsung
• Manufacturing yields and customer qualification progress
• High-NA capacity for 2027 and 2028
• The effect of the more expensive product mix on gross margins

A faster High-NA adoption schedule could support ASML’s valuation by increasing revenue per system and strengthening the company’s technological lead. Delays would create concern that customers can continue using conventional EUV with multiple patterning for longer than expected.

ASML Is Expanding Capacity to Meet AI Demand

ASML currently expects low-NA EUV capacity of approximately 65 systems in 2026. It plans to expand that capacity by around 30% in 2027 and is studying another 30% increase for 2028.

The company has announced similar plans for deep ultraviolet immersion systems, with capacity expected to increase from approximately 130 units in 2026.

Management indicated that ASML was already close to receiving all the EUV orders needed to fill its 2027 capacity and had accumulated substantial commitments for 2028.

This visibility is central to the bullish case. ASML does not merely benefit from quarterly chip demand; it benefits when manufacturers commit years in advance to new factories and manufacturing nodes.

The expansion also introduces execution risks. EUV machines contain extremely complex components supplied by a limited number of specialized manufacturers. Zeiss is ASML’s exclusive source for several critical optical systems, making supplier capacity an important constraint.

China Remains the Largest Geopolitical Risk

US and Dutch export restrictions prevent ASML from selling its most advanced EUV systems to China and increasingly limit shipments of certain DUV equipment.

China’s contribution to ASML’s system sales reportedly declined from 36% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to approximately 19% in the second quarter of 2026.

Strong demand from TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Intel and Micron has so far helped offset the decline. However, further restrictions on servicing installed machines or exporting additional DUV systems could create another revenue headwind.

Investors should watch management’s forecast for China’s full-year sales contribution and any discussion of new export rules. They should also monitor whether non-Chinese customers are ordering enough DUV equipment to replace lost regional demand.

Competition from Chinese lithography developers remains another long-term issue. China has made progress in older DUV technologies, but analysts generally believe local suppliers remain far behind ASML in EUV systems and advanced commercial production.

Can ASML Stock Extend Its AI Rally?

ASML shares enter earnings near $1,780. A compilation of analyst forecasts places the average 12-month price target at approximately $2,085, implying potential upside of about 17%, although targets range from $1,200 to $2,623.

A bullish report would likely require several of the following:

• Revenue near or above the upper end of ASML’s guidance
• Gross margin approaching or exceeding 57%
• Strong EUV and High-NA bookings
• Confirmation that 2027 EUV capacity is nearly fully committed
• Higher full-year revenue or margin guidance
• Evidence that non-China demand is offsetting export restrictions

The principal downside scenario would combine weaker bookings with cautious comments about 2027 customer capital expenditure. A gross margin below 55% or rising costs related to capacity expansion could also pressure the shares.

ASML’s valuation assumes that AI demand will remain strong for several years. As a result, meeting quarterly estimates may not be enough. Investors need evidence that current orders are converting into a durable backlog extending through 2027 and 2028.

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Bottom Line

ASML’s third-quarter revenue and earnings are expected to show another substantial step up from the previous quarter, supported by EUV shipments, service revenue and AI-related investment.

However, the decisive figure may be net bookings. Strong EUV and High-NA orders would confirm that leading chipmakers continue committing capital to advanced manufacturing despite high interest rates and concerns about an AI spending bubble.

If ASML delivers revenue near €12 billion, a gross margin close to 57% and another strong order quarter, its premium valuation may remain justified. If bookings weaken or management becomes more cautious about 2027, the stock could face a sharper reaction even if the reported third-quarter numbers beat expectations.