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Tuesday Nov 25 2025 05:10
2 min
Current data suggests that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 69.4%, while the probability of holding rates steady has fallen to 30.6%. Statements from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman John Williams, indicating that rate cuts could occur "soon" without jeopardizing inflation targets, have contributed to these expectations.
Bitcoin's price saw a slight increase following Williams's comments, reaching $87,067.46. White House economic advisor Hassett also suggested that new Fed leadership might lean towards rate cuts, with expectations of a new Fed Chair being appointed before the year's end. These developments amplify anticipation for the upcoming FOMC meeting.
The FOMC's decisions are based on a majority vote, with each of the 12 voting members holding an equal vote. The committee consists of the Board of Governors (up to seven members), the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four rotating presidents of regional Federal Reserve Banks serving one-year terms. Despite the voting mechanism, FOMC members typically strive for consensus to ensure broad support for decisions, conveying a consistent message to the markets.
FOMC members hold diverse views on appropriate monetary policy. Some lean towards rate cuts to support the labor market, such as Williams, Bowman, Mian and Waller, while others adopt a more cautious stance due to inflation concerns, like Barr, Collins, Musalem and Schmid. Powell, Jefferson and Cook adopt a more neutral stance and rely on data to guide decisions.
Barclays' forecasts suggest that Powell may push the FOMC towards a rate cut, despite differing opinions among members. Meanwhile, Citic Securities expects a slight cut of 25 basis points in December. Polymarket forecasts show an increase in the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to 67%.
Risk Warning: this article represents only the author’s views and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial guidance, nor does it represent the stance of the Markets.com platform.When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice. Trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets is restricted for all UK retail clients.
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