AMINA License, Wintermute & 21Shares Analysis: Crypto Market Insights

Key Highlights:

• AMINA secures license in Hong Kong to provide crypto trading and custody services.
• Wintermute anticipates improved market liquidity in Q1 2026.
• 21Shares believes Bitcoin has not entered a deep bear market.
• Mixed views on Bitcoin's potential price movement.

AMINA Obtains License in Hong Kong

AMINA (Hong Kong) Limited, a Swiss crypto bank, has obtained an upgrade to a Type 1 license from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC). This makes it the first international banking group to offer spot crypto trading and asset custody services to professional investors in Hong Kong. Services include 24/7 trading, custody, and the withdrawal and deposit of crypto assets to whitelisted addresses. AMINA initially supports 13 crypto assets, including BTC, ETH, USDC, USDT, and major DeFi tokens, and utilizes a SOC 1/2 Type 2 level infrastructure. AMINA plans to later expand to private equity fund management, structured products, derivatives, and RWA tokenization, targeting institutions, enterprises, and high-net-worth clients.

Wintermute's Market Liquidity Analysis

Analysis from Wintermute, a crypto market maker, indicates that last week’s cryptocurrency market downturn was primarily driven by the repricing of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for December, rather than fundamental market problems. For market sentiment to improve, Bitcoin needs to re-enter a certain price range. The analysis indicates that the pressure partly came from risk reduction behavior by large asset holders. Selling from Q4 to Q1 typically occurs seasonally, but this trend occurred earlier this year, partly because of market expectations that the four-year cycle might suggest weaker performance in the coming year. However, this decline has no substantial fundamental problems but is mostly driven by U.S. macro factors. Although short-term interest rate adjustments affect market sentiment, the global macro environment has shown no signs of deterioration. Global monetary policies are still trending towards easing: Japan plans to launch a $110 billion stimulus package, China continues to implement easing monetary policies, the U.S. quantitative tightening program will end next month, and fiscal stimulus channels remain active. Wintermute believes that the recent Bitcoin decline is a macro-driven correction rather than a structural problem. With global easing monetary policies continuing and the U.S. quantitative tightening program ending next month, liquidity is expected to improve in Q1 next year, and the overall market environment remains constructive. The current macro environment does not look like a long-term bear market, and the current improvement in market sentiment requires confirmation from the performance of mainstream assets, and a future catalyst may come from policies and interest rate expectations, rather than from the internal liquidity of the cryptocurrency industry. Once mainstream assets rebound, the market may see a broader recovery.

21Shares' Market Assessment

Maximiliaan Michielsen, an analyst at 21Shares, an issuer of crypto asset ETPs, offers analysis that Bitcoin's price drop below $100,000 has raised concerns about a bear market, but this analysis sees this decline as a short-term correction rather than the start of a deep or long-term bear market. Although volatility and consolidation may continue until the end of the year, the fundamental factors driving this cycle remain solid, supporting its long-term positive outlook. He adds that the recent Bitcoin weakness is mainly due to three factors: forced liquidations, selling by investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin, and capital outflows from ETFs, as well as liquidity tightening caused by macroeconomic events. Although Bitcoin is currently technically in a short-term bear market, the analysis sees this decline as more like a revaluation of value rather than a deep crash of more than 80%. Importantly, there are currently no classic bear market catalysts: no securities defaults, systemic fraud, regulatory shocks, or a tightening macroeconomic cycle. Historical data shows that this magnitude of retracement typically ends within one to three months and often marks a consolidation phase before the next rise. In the long term, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain solid, and there are still constructive expectations for the future.