Bitcoin's Technicals: A Bear Market on the Horizon?

Long-term technical trend indicators for Bitcoin have shifted bearish, leading some analysts to believe the bull market may be concluding. Crypto analyst 'Crypto₿irb' informed his 700,000 X followers on Thursday that, "From a technical standpoint, the bull market is over."

Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a “persistent trend shift, confirmed by price percentage traveled, volume spikes, above-average volatility, time spent below the 200-day trend, and worsened breadth,” he stated, predicting declines through 2026.

Key Bearish Indicators

The analysis highlighted a downturn in the 200-day trend, a visual tool utilized by analysts to connect specific points and evaluate trend strength or potential breakouts. Furthermore, the 200-day moving average, a distinct indicator that calculates the average price of BTC over the preceding 200 days, turned downwards in mid-November, triggering a “death cross” as it fell below the shorter-term 50-day moving average. These indicators are closely monitored as potential long-term support levels and signals for both bullish and bearish market phases.

Conflicting Perspectives on Market Direction

Calls for a Bitcoin bear market are gaining traction. Markus Thielen from 10x Research told Cointelegraph, “There is no debate, Bitcoin is in a bear market,” characterizing the current situation as “a bear market reversal rally.” However, Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer of Apollo Capital, offered a different perspective, stating that while the buying pressure from digital asset treasuries (DATs) observed in the first half of the year has subsided, this "doesn’t mean we are in a bear market." He added, “The direction going forward will be determined by risk assets in general, and being selective as an investor will be more important than ever.”

Short-Term Optimism for Bitcoin Bulls

Crypto analyst ‘Skew’ presented a more optimistic short-term outlook on Thursday, stating that things are “looking a lot more constructive here for the bulls,” based on a four-hour chart time frame. “Momentum is toward the upside if buyers and the market can muster strength from here.” He cautioned that falling back below $88,000 “would be a sign of weakness and failed momentum to drive higher,” and identified the $90,000 to $92,000 range as an “initial area for the market to fight over structural trend.”

BTC briefly approached $92,000 on Coinbase during early trading on Thursday morning before retracing to $91,200 at the time of publication.


Risk Warning: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, investment research, or a recommendation to trade. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Markets.com. When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange), and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leveraged products can result in capital loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before trading, ensure you fully understand the risks involved and consider your investment objectives and level of experience. Cryptocurrency CFD trading restrictions may apply depending on jurisdiction.

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