Gold Price Forecast: ETF Inflows and Central Bank Buying Support Gold Ahead of the July 29-30 Fed Meeting

Key Takeaways

• The Federal Reserve's July 29-30 policy meeting, together with U.S. GDP, Core PCE inflation, and July's nonfarm payrolls report, will be the primary catalysts for gold and silver prices this week.
• Central banks added a net 41 tonnes of gold in May, with Poland and China leading purchases, reinforcing long-term demand for the precious metal.
• Global physically backed gold ETFs recorded a third consecutive month of net inflows in June, highlighting resilient institutional demand despite elevated interest rates.
• From a technical perspective, gold needs to reclaim $4,067 to strengthen its recovery, while a move below $4,020 could trigger fresh downside pressure.

Gold Prices Hold Steady Ahead of the July 29-30 Fed Meeting

Gold prices traded in a narrow range as investors prepared for one of the busiest weeks on the macroeconomic calendar. The spotlight will be on the Federal Reserve's July 29-30 policy meeting, where officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. However, markets will be looking beyond the rate decision itself for updated guidance on inflation and clues about when the central bank could begin cutting rates.

In addition to the Fed meeting, investors will closely monitor second-quarter U.S. GDP, the June Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—and July's nonfarm payrolls report. Together, these releases are expected to shape expectations for the future path of U.S. monetary policy.

Recent economic data have painted a relatively resilient picture of the U.S. economy. June retail sales rose 0.2%, core retail sales increased 0.4%, and initial jobless claims fell to a three-month low of 208,000, reinforcing expectations that policymakers may remain cautious about easing policy too quickly.

Central Bank Buying and Gold ETF Inflows Reinforce Demand

Institutional demand continues to provide a solid foundation for the gold market.

According to the World Gold Council, central banks purchased a net 41 tonnes of gold in May. Poland led global buying with 18 tonnes, while China added 10 tonnes, extending its official gold reserve purchases for an eighth consecutive month as it continues to diversify its foreign exchange reserves.

Investor appetite has also strengthened through exchange-traded funds. Global physically backed gold ETFs recorded their third consecutive month of net inflows in June, suggesting institutional investors continue to allocate capital to bullion despite elevated interest rates and a resilient U.S. economy.

The combination of sustained central bank purchases and improving ETF demand has helped underpin gold prices even as higher bond yields continue to limit upside momentum.

Industrial Demand Continues to Support Silver

Silver's fundamental outlook remains constructive, supported by robust industrial consumption.

The Silver Institute expects global industrial demand to exceed 700 million ounces this year, driven by continued investment in solar photovoltaic projects, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and electronics manufacturing.

Although higher interest rates have reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets for some investors, resilient industrial demand, continued central bank gold buying, and improving ETF inflows continue to provide a supportive backdrop for the precious metals sector.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Tests Key Resistance Levels

From a technical perspective, gold has rebounded from support near $4,020 and is trading around $4,053, but the broader trend remains cautious as prices continue to trade below both the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages.

Immediate resistance is located at $4,067, followed by $4,114, while the descending trendline near $4,160 remains the key barrier for a stronger bullish reversal. Initial support is seen at $4,020, with additional downside levels around $3,998 and $3,957.

A sustained close above $4,067 would strengthen the recovery outlook and could pave the way toward $4,114. Conversely, a break below $4,020 would likely expose the next support zone near $3,998.

Silver Price Forecast: Bulls Need a Break Above $58.67

Silver traded around $57.64 after retreating toward the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting that the market remains in a consolidation phase.

The first support level is located at $57.09, followed by $56.12, while immediate resistance is seen at $58.67. A move above that level would improve the short-term technical outlook and could open the door for a rally toward $60.03. On the downside, a break below $57.09 would confirm renewed selling pressure and increase the likelihood of a decline toward $56.12.

Overall, traders are expected to remain cautious until this week's major macroeconomic events—including the July 29-30 Federal Reserve meeting, U.S. GDP, Core PCE inflation, and the July employment report—provide greater clarity on the outlook for interest rates and precious metals.