US September Non-Farm Payroll Report: Analysis and Market Impact

Thursday Nov 20 2025 03:40

Duration

2 min

  1. 1. September Non-Farm Payroll Report: A Closer Look

  2. 1.1 Forecasts and Analysis

  3. 1.2 Other Indicators Pointing to a Cooling Labor Market

  4. 1.3 Impact on Federal Reserve Decisions

  5. 1.4 Backlog of Economic Data

September Non-Farm Payroll Report: A Closer Look

The US September Non-Farm Payroll report is scheduled for release on Thursday, November 20th, at 21:30 GMT. Economists predict the report will continue to show a weakening labor market, with only a slight improvement in hiring compared to the lackluster August data.

Forecasts and Analysis

Market forecasts anticipate a 50,000 increase in non-farm employment for September, up from 22,000 in August. This represents a significant slowdown compared to the average monthly increase of around 100,000 jobs earlier in the year. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%.

Expert Opinions

* **Ben Ayers (Nationwide):** Expects the labor market weakness seen over the summer to extend into the fall, predicting a gain of 40,000 to 50,000 jobs in September. * **Bill Adams (Comerica Bank):** Believes the financial market reaction to the report might be smaller than usual due to more information being available from private sources. However, government data remains the gold standard for measuring the labor market.

Other Indicators Pointing to a Cooling Labor Market

Despite the lack of official employment data, other indicators suggest the US labor market is cooling, including a significant increase in layoff announcements across much of the US in October.

Impact of Artificial Intelligence

Some experts warn that the recent layoffs may just be the early signs of larger layoffs in the future, especially with the expanding use of artificial intelligence.

Impact on Federal Reserve Decisions

This report is one of the first government data points that Federal Reserve officials will need to consider as they assess the path for potential interest rate cuts.

Odds of Interest Rate Cuts

Market expectations for a December interest rate cut have shifted dramatically. At the start of the government shutdown, markets were almost certain of a December rate cut, but that probability has now fallen to 33%.

Backlog of Economic Data

A series of backlogged economic data releases are scheduled to be published sequentially. The September Non-Farm Payroll report, originally scheduled for October 3rd, was delayed due to the government shutdown. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the release of the October Non-Farm Employment report.

Key Data Releases

* Third-Quarter GDP Revision (November 26th) * Personal Income, Spending and PCE Price Index (November 26th) * October International Trade Report (December 4th) * Third-Quarter GDP Final Reading (December 19th) **Disclaimer:** Financial markets are subject to risk, and investing involves uncertainty. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Risk Warning: this article represents only the author’s views and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial guidance, nor does it represent the stance of the Markets.com platform.When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice. Trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets is restricted for all UK retail clients. 

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Written by:

Sophia Claire

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