US Senate Stalemate: Government Shutdown Negotiations Amid Cautious Optimism

Cautious Hope Looms Over Senate Negotiations to End Government Shutdown

U.S. Republican and Democratic senators expressed cautious optimism Tuesday about reaching a bipartisan deal to end the government shutdown, while also signaling concerns about the ability to quickly break the current deadlock.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) on Tuesday outlined a potential path forward, suggesting combining a new short-term funding bill to reopen the government with parts of the 12 annual appropriations bills that provide funding to federal agencies. He indicated that the core of this solution lies in Democrats allowing a vote on extending soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, as well as spending bill plans.

“I’ve said it before, but the question is whether they’ll agree to it,” Thune said.

Most Senate Democrats walked out of a closed-door lunch with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) looking pensive, declining to comment. Among the few Democrats who spoke were moderate Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who are in talks with Republicans on a plan to end the shutdown.

“We had a very pleasant discussion,” Shaheen said, smiling as she walked out of the meeting.

“Things are still moving,” Peters said. “We still have a lot to negotiate.”

Asked about the meeting, Schumer responded: “We had a very successful caucus meeting and are exploring all possible options.”

On Tuesday, Trump reiterated his call for Senate Republicans to eliminate the long-standing filibuster rule to bypass Democrats—a rule requiring 60 votes to advance most legislation. He invited all Republican senators to a breakfast meeting at the White House on Wednesday, as the government shutdown entered its record-breaking 36th day, and lawmakers were parsing the results of Tuesday night’s elections: Democratic wins in the New Jersey, Virginia gubernatorial elections and the New York City mayoral election.

Since September, Schumer has demanded that negotiations first take place on extending soon-to-expire enhanced ACA subsidies before Democrats vote on a Republican bill that “extends government funding to later this month.” Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, but so far only three senators aligned with Democrats have defected in more than a dozen failed votes.

The funding lapse has forced many federal workers into furloughs, while others, including air traffic controllers, have had to work without pay. It’s also disrupted food aid for millions of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) beneficiaries in America.

Several lawmakers have indicated that if negotiations progress, the government shutdown is expected to end before the end of this week.

“I think we do have an opportunity,” Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said when asked about the possibility of the shutdown ending soon.

Some Democrats, in contrast, have taken a hard line. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said he cannot vote for a government appropriations bill simply based on the promise of “a future vote on extending healthcare subsidies.” “I don’t trust them,” he said. “[It’s] a show vote – I just don’t believe that they would actually do it.”

He noted that even if an agreement is reached in the Senate, the bill would need to be approved by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and his caucus.

Several lawmakers have said that negotiations may become more serious after the election.

“Once the election’s over, and everybody analyzes the results, this could be over early this week, (and then) we could get down to serious business,” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said.

Both Republican and Democratic senators acknowledged that given how long the shutdown has lasted, the proposal that the House passed in September to “extend government funding through November 21” is now expired. Some have suggested a new short-term funding bill, effective until December or January, to give lawmakers more time to advance year-round bills and healthcare-related negotiations.

Johnson poured cold water on a December deadline, saying there have been past instances of “short-term bills forcing Congress to pass massive spending bills before the Christmas holiday.” He favors a bill that extends funding into January. “There’s a lot of people here with PTSD from the Christmas omnibus bill,” he said.

The last longest government shutdown occurred during Trump’s first term in late 2018, lasting 35 days, ending in 2019. Only some federal agencies were affected by the funding freeze at that time, because some of the 12 annual appropriations bills had been signed into law.

Democrats say the outcome of the current shutdown hinges on Trump—any proposal needs his support to pass Congress.

“What is he afraid of when he claims to be a great negotiator?” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who represents a large population of federal workers. Workers will be paid retroactively once the shutdown ends.

A senior administration official revealed that Trump and his surrogates plan to publicly advocate strongly for eliminating the filibuster rule, shifting to privately lobbying senators to eliminate the rule if the shutdown is not resolved within a week or so. But Senate Republican leaders have been lukewarm to the idea.

“Everyone knows the president’s position,” Thune, who opposes eliminating the filibuster rule, said. “The reality is, the votes aren’t there.”

Some Republicans said they understand Trump’s frustration.

“A few weeks ago, I was absolutely opposed to eliminating the filibuster rule, but now the situation is: it’s been two weeks and we’re still in a shutdown,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) said. “Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.”