Overview of Risk Models in Perp DEXs

Perpetual contracts are among the most valuable and frequently traded products in the on-chain financial ecosystem, but also the most prone to systemic risks. The Hyperliquid incident in March 2025, which resulted in significant losses due to excessive leverage and withdrawal of collateral, demonstrates structural weaknesses in pricing and liquidation mechanisms. This reminds us that the true stability of Perp DEXs depends on the ability of their risk models to withstand extreme market conditions.

Key Components of Risk Models

* Pricing Models: Determine fair reference prices, crucial for avoiding manipulation and ensuring fair liquidations. * Margin Rules: Set initial and maintenance margin requirements, providing a buffer against price fluctuations. * Liquidation Mechanisms: Define how positions are liquidated when they fall below margin requirements, playing a vital role in containing risk. * Insurance Funds: Act as a safety net to absorb losses from liquidation, preventing mutualized bankruptcy. * Position Management: Imposes limits on position sizes to prevent excessive risk concentration.

Evolution of Perp DEX Architectures

* First Generation (Off-Chain Order Book): Emphasis on the robustness of centralized matching nodes. * Second Generation (Automated Market Maker - AMM): Risk is transferred to the directional exposure of liquidity pools. * Third Generation (On-Chain Order Book - CLOB): Risk is shifted to reliance on the performance of the underlying public chain. * Advanced Explorations (Hybrid Mode): Risk lies in the dynamic switching logic between the order book and liquidity pool.

Trade-off Analysis in Mainstream Risk Models

Mainstream platforms are currently shifting towards CLOB or CLOB-Centric hybrid solutions to achieve better matching accuracy and capital efficiency. However, this comes with specific trade-offs: * Hyperliquid: Achieves efficiency and depth close to CEX, but increases system complexity and reliance on risk management mechanisms. * Aster: The liquidation mechanism improves capital efficiency and stability during low-volatility periods, but makes risk transmission paths more complex. * edgeX: ZK-Rollup technology ensures high transparency and verifiability, but performance is limited by L2 data availability and state submission delays. * Lighter: Prioritizes auditability and on-chain credibility, but performance cannot reach the maximum of pure off-chain matching.

Future of Risk Models in Perp DEXs

* Semi-Automated Risk Management: On-chain mechanisms will be combined with off-chain real-time monitoring and dynamic parameter adjustments to form a semi-automated governance system. * Regulation-Compliant Integration: "Non-custodial but regulated" hybrid models will become critical for attracting institutional-level liquidity. * Technology-Driven Security Boundary Expansion: Zero-knowledge proofs, high-performance L2, and modular design will enable complex real-time risk models to operate on-chain.

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