OPEC Predicts Balanced Oil Market in 2026, Responds to Media Reports

Wednesday Nov 19 2025 00:00

Duration

2 min

  1. 1. OPEC Denies 2026 Oil Surplus Forecast, Criticizes Media

  2. 1.1 Supply and Demand Growth Projections

  3. 1.2 Potential Continued Production Increases

OPEC Denies 2026 Oil Surplus Forecast, Criticizes Media

The Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Haitham Al Ghais, stated that OPEC does not anticipate an oil supply surplus by 2026 and strongly criticized media reports that he described as misleading and misinterpreting data from OPEC's monthly oil market report. Al Ghais stated, "There has been misrepresentation in some media outlets of our monthly market report, particularly concerning the creation of a narrative around a potential surplus in the market next year based on some figures in our report." He added that OPEC expects the oil market to be balanced next year, which is a revision of previous forecasts that indicated a supply shortage.

Supply and Demand Growth Projections

OPEC's projections indicate that oil production growth from non-OPEC countries will be faster than expected, adding 1.3 million barrels per day to the market by 2026. Conversely, the organization expects oil demand to grow at a rate of 1.6 million barrels per day, bringing total demand to 106.2 million barrels per day. Al Ghais described OPEC's monthly oil market report as "very basic" and "not complicated," implying that the information contained within it is clear and straightforward, and that the problem lies in media interpretation.

Potential Continued Production Increases

Despite OPEC's forecast of a balanced oil market in 2026, analysts expect the organization to continue increasing its production after a brief pause at the beginning of next year, based on agreements reached at the recent meeting. A survey conducted by an institution this month involving 25 traders and analysts showed that most expect OPEC to continue increasing production monthly, while only a few predicted a longer pause or even a reversal of current production policies. Greg Brew, senior analyst at Eurasia Group consulting firm in New York, believes that "OPEC may reverse its policy and pledge to cut production only in the event of a clear collapse in demand and a drop in oil prices below $50 a barrel, and a clear recognition by OPEC leaders of the need to shift policy focus back to market management." Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy AS and former employee of the OPEC Secretariat, believes that "OPEC+ will not cut production in 2026, OPEC+ has made its path forward clear, which is to regain market share."

Risk Warning: this article represents only the author’s views and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial guidance, nor does it represent the stance of the Markets.com platform.When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice. Trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets is restricted for all UK retail clients. 

Default Author Avatar

Written by:

Emma Rose

Asset List

View Full List
Most Traded Commodities Indices Crypto Shares Forex
Asset
Sell
Buy
Change (%)

Trade Now

Trade Now

Trade Now

Trade Now
Asset
Sell
Buy
Change (%)

Trade Now

Trade Now

Trade Now

Trade Now
Asset
Sell
Buy
Change (%)

Trade Now

Trade Now

Trade Now

Trade Now
Asset
Sell
Buy
Change (%)

Trade Now

Trade Now

Trade Now

Trade Now
Asset
Sell
Buy
Change (%)

Trade Now

Trade Now

Trade Now

Trade Now
Asset
Sell
Buy
Change (%)

Trade Now

Trade Now

Trade Now

Trade Now

Latest

View all

Friday, 17 April 2026

Duration

4 min

Ukraine Seeks Air Defense Prowess Amid Russian Threats to European Drone Factories

Friday, 17 April 2026

Duration

3 min

Global Investors Ramp Up Dollar Hedging as Geopolitical Fears Subside

Thursday, 16 April 2026

Duration

3 min

Gold price today, April 17: XAUUSD climbs 3.6% amid oil volatility, how high will gold go in 2026?

Latest news

Thursday, 16 April 2026

Indices

Gold price today, April 17: XAUUSD climbs 3.6% amid oil volatility, how high will gold go in 2026?

Thursday, 16 April 2026

Indices

Crypto market update: Altcoin Season Index surges to 38, Altcoin price today (ALT/USD) is $0.000104

Thursday, 16 April 2026

Indices

Citi Warns of Twin Rate Hikes by SARB Amid Rising Oil Prices and Inflation Pressures

Thursday, 16 April 2026

Indices

Crypto Market News: South Korea Moves to Phase Out Government Cards in Favor of Blockchain Deposit Tokens

Wednesday, 15 April 2026

Indices

Middle East Financial News: Saudi Arabia Steps In with $3 Billion Aid for Pakistan as UAE Demands Debt Repayment

Wednesday, 15 April 2026

Indices

Gold price today, April 16: XAU/USD drifts below $4,800 as the US Dollar strengthens

Wednesday, 15 April 2026

Indices

How is the ZA economy doing right now: What is the current rate of unemployment in South Africa?

Wednesday, 15 April 2026

Indices

AI Industry Boom: What’s Driving the Allbirds ($BIRD) Stock Rally? Is Allbirds Inc the Next AI Giant?

Tuesday, 14 April 2026

Indices

Gold price today, April 15: XAUUSD was $4,830.58 per ounce, gold prices have risen 50.26% over the past 12 months

Tuesday, 14 April 2026

Indices

Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop Warns of Global Risk Aversion Impacting South Africa Investment in 2026

See all news