Willy Woo Downplays Fears of Michael Saylor's MSTR Bitcoin Liquidation in Next Bear Market

Wednesday Nov 5 2025 04:20

Duration

2 min

  1. 1. Article Summary

  2. 2. Easing Concerns Over MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Debt

  3. 2.1 Strategy Safe from Liquidation in Next Bear Market

  4. 2.2 Woo Tips a Chance of a “Partial Liquidation”

Article Summary

  • Willy Woo Analysis: Dismisses MicroStrategy Bitcoin liquidation in the next bear market.
  • Debt Structure: MicroStrategy's debt primarily consists of convertible senior notes.
  • Avoiding Sell-Off: MicroStrategy's stock must trade above $183.19 to avoid selling Bitcoin to repay debt.
  • Critical Bitcoin Levels: Bitcoin price needs to be around $91,502 to achieve this.
  • Partial Liquidation Possibility: Possible if Bitcoin doesn't rally strongly enough in the anticipated 2028 bull market.

Easing Concerns Over MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Debt

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) won’t have to sell off part of its Bitcoin stash to cover its debt in the next significant crypto market downturn, according to Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo. “MSTR liquidation in the next bear market? I doubt it,” Willy Woo said in an X post on Wednesday. Strategy’s debt consists mainly of convertible senior notes. Strategy is set to settle its conversions as they fall due by paying either cash, common stock, or a combination of both, at its election.

Strategy Safe from Liquidation in Next Bear Market

For the Sept. 15, 2027 holder put right date, Strategy will have around $1.01 billion in debt due. To avoid needing to sell Bitcoin (BTC) to repay it, Strategy’s stock must be trading above $183.19, Woo said. That price roughly corresponds to a Bitcoin price of around $91,502, and assuming a multiple net-asset-value (mNAV) of 1, he added. The Bitcoin analyst The Bitcoin Therapist said that “Bitcoin would have to perform horribly” in the next market downturn for Strategy to have to start selling off Bitcoin. “Would be one hell of a sustained bear market to see any liquidation for Strategy,” they added. Strategy holds around 641,205 Bitcoin, which is worth around $64 billion at the time of publication, according to Saylor Tracker. Strategy’s stock closed trading on Tuesday at a seven-month low, down nearly 6.7% on the day to $246.99. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at $101,377, down 9.92% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap.

Woo Tips a Chance of a “Partial Liquidation”

While Woo does not expect a liquidation in the next bear market, he warned that it is possible if Bitcoin fails to rally strongly during the anticipated 2028 bull market. “Ironically, there’s a chance of a partial liquidation if BTC doesn’t climb in value fast enough in an assumed 2028 bull market,” Willy Woo said. Some crypto executives, such as ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have forecasted that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030.

Risk Warning: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, investment research, or a recommendation to trade. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Markets.com. When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange), and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leveraged products can result in capital loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before trading, ensure you fully understand the risks involved and consider your investment objectives and level of experience. Cryptocurrency CFD trading restrictions may apply depending on jurisdiction.

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Written by:

Sophia Claire

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