Market Review: Fed's Hawkish Stance, Trade Agreement, and Tech Earnings

Article Highlights

• Market Performance Review: Detailed analysis of the Dollar Index, precious metals, crude oil, and US stock performance.
• Federal Reserve's Stance: Assessing the impact of the Fed Chair's remarks on market expectations for interest rate cuts.
• US-China Trade Agreement: Review of the key points reached in the trade negotiations between the US and China.
• Big Tech Earnings: Analysis of the performance of major tech companies and their influence on the markets.
• Other Important Events: Coverage of other significant events such as the US President's visit to Japan, the Israeli attack on Gaza, and statements by central bank governors.

Market Review

Dollar Index: The Dollar Index experienced a rise after a period of volatility, driven by the Fed Chair's comments indicating that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. The index reached 99.7.

Precious Metals: Precious metals continued their volatility this week. Gold saw a sharp decline at the beginning of the week due to decreasing concerns about risks but partially recovered later. Silver, on the other hand, recorded a slight increase. Gold was priced at $4021 per ounce, while Silver was at $48.89 per ounce.

Crude Oil: The crude oil market performed weakly overall, influenced by expectations of increased production from OPEC+ and easing supply restrictions. However, oil saw a slight rebound at the end of the week due to reports of a potential US military attack on Venezuela.

US Stocks: US stocks recorded record highs at the beginning of the week, driven by strong performance from tech companies. However, stocks declined later after the Fed Chair's comments.

Investment Bank Views

• Nomura Securities: Withdrew its expectations for a Fed rate cut in December.
• JPMorgan: Believes that the data will show continued weakness in the labor market, allowing the Fed to cut rates in December.
• Citi: Lowered its short-term price targets for gold and silver.
• HSBC: Expects gold prices to peak in the first half of next year.
• LBMA: Expects gold prices to approach $5000 within a year.
• Morgan Stanley: Indicates that dollar positions have turned positive, but the medium-term outlook remains weak.
• Goldman Sachs: Expects the dollar to fall against the Japanese yen to 100 in the next ten years.

Key Events

1. Fed Cuts Rates but Hints at Pause

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the Fed Chair hinted that a December rate cut is not certain, sparking mixed reactions in the market.

2. US and China Agree on Several Points in Trade Negotiations

The US and China reached an agreement on several points in trade negotiations, including easing restrictions on some goods.

3. US Government Shutdown Continues

The partial US government shutdown continues, and negotiations between the parties remain stalled.

4. US President's Visit to Japan

The US President made a visit to Japan, where he met with the new Japanese Prime Minister and pledged support for her country.

5. Israel Launches Attacks on Gaza

Israel launched attacks on Gaza after accusing Hamas of violating the ceasefire agreement.

6. Signals from the 2025 Financial Street Forum

The Governor of the Central Bank, the Chairman of the Financial Supervisory Authority, and the Chairman of the Securities Regulatory Commission delivered important speeches at the 2025 Financial Street Forum.

7. US-Russia Summit Canceled and Nuclear Testing Resumed

The US canceled the planned summit with the Russian President and ordered the resumption of nuclear testing.

8. ECB and BOJ Both Hold Interest Rates Steady Again

The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan both kept interest rates unchanged.

9. NVIDIA's Market Value Historically Exceeds Five Trillion Dollars

NVIDIA's market value exceeded five trillion dollars, and Qualcomm launched a new chip to compete.

10. Tech Company Earnings

Major tech companies announced their earnings, with Amazon announcing 14,000 layoffs and Apple forecasting double-digit revenue growth in the holiday season.

11. OpenAI and Microsoft Reach Agreement

OpenAI and Microsoft reached an agreement, and OpenAI plans to IPO as early as the end of 2026.