Executive Summary

  • Market correction driven by interest rate cut expectation repricing.
  • Positions have been cleared, global easing policies are ongoing.
  • Bitcoin needs to regain its footing to improve broader market sentiment.

Macro Updates

Last week's market focus was on digesting the abrupt repricing of December rate cut expectations, plummeting from ~70% to 42%. The market reacted swiftly, with risk assets softening and crypto being among the hardest hit.

Crypto has underperformed equity markets since early summer. Bitcoin and Ethereum have performed worse than altcoins, partly driven by strength in certain sectors like privacy coins.

Industry Analysis

Performance was generally negative, with the GMCI-30 index down 12%. AI, DePIN, Gaming, and Memes led the decliners. Even more resilient categories like L1s, L2s, and DeFi saw widespread weakness.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin dipped below the $10,000 mark again, a level not seen since May. The pressure was partly due to whales reducing holdings, a seasonal trend that started early this year.

Interest Rate Cut Expectation Repricing

The repricing of interest rate cut expectations was the main driver behind the market correction. After Fed Chair Powell walked back the virtually-certain December rate cut, US traders began to dissect the views of FOMC members more deeply.

Outlook

The macro environment still supports the market, and position adjustments have cleared the market. However, stabilizing sentiment still requires strong performance from major coins.

The key takeaway is that this correction was driven by macro factors, not a structural breakdown. With positions cleared and US-led pressure understood, the outlook remains constructive.

The next catalyst is most likely to come from policies and interest rate expectations. Once major coins regain momentum, a broader market recovery can be expected.


Risk Warning: this article represents only the author’s views and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial guidance, nor does it represent the stance of the Markets.com platform.When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice. Trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets is restricted for all UK retail clients. 

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