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Wednesday Nov 19 2025 22:00
2 min
The likelihood of a rate cut at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has plummeted to 33%, reflecting "extreme fear" prevailing in the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin's (BTC) descent below the $89,000 mark.
During the first week of November, investors priced in a roughly 67% chance of a December rate cut. However, data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reveals that these odds dipped below 50% on Thursday.
Traders on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are forecasting probabilities of approximately 70% and 67%, respectively, for a December rate cut. While higher than the CME figures, these traders generally appear more cautious about rate cuts due to persistent inflation concerns, according to insights from The Kobeissi Letter.
This sharp decline in the probability of a December rate cut, coupled with falling crypto prices, has triggered a sense of panic. Some analysts are now suggesting that this downturn could herald the beginning of a prolonged crypto bear market and a broader decline in asset prices.
Bitcoin's price slipped below $90,000 again on Wednesday after failing to hold a key support level. The cryptocurrency has been trading significantly below its 365-day moving average, a critical support level, for the past six days.
Furthermore, Bitcoin's 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed below the 200-day EMA. This technical signal, often referred to as the "death cross," suggests the potential for further downside movement in Bitcoin's price.
Certain analysts are now predicting a drop to $75,000, potentially marking a bottom before a rebound by the end of 2025. Others are speculating whether the cycle top has already been reached.
Market analyst Benjamin Cowen stated on Sunday, "If the cycle is not over, the time for Bitcoin to bounce would start within the next week."
Cowen added, "If no bounce occurs within 1 week, probably another dump before a larger rally back to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which would then mark a macro lower high."
These forecasts come amidst deteriorating sentiment among crypto investors. The "Crypto Fear & Greed Index" currently stands at 16, indicating "extreme fear" within the market.
According to CoinMarketCap, this level places crypto investor market sentiment just one point above its yearly low.
Risk Warning: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, investment research, or a recommendation to trade. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Markets.com. When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange), and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leveraged products can result in capital loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before trading, ensure you fully understand the risks involved and consider your investment objectives and level of experience. Cryptocurrency CFD trading restrictions may apply depending on jurisdiction.
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