Article Highlights

  • Public Chain Underlying Logic: Platform Thinking Drives Ecosystem Expansion
  • Value Anchoring: TVL-Driven Valuation System
  • Currency Attribute Evolution: From Payment Tool to "Currency Settlement Layer"
  • Beyond Payments: Building an All-End Financial Ecosystem
  • Open Ecosystem: ETH's Long-Term Competitive Moat
  • Future Prospects: From "Financial Operating System" to "Global Settlement Layer"

Public Chain Underlying Logic: Platform Thinking Drives Ecosystem Expansion

Ethereum's core advantage lies in its open ecosystem's platform-based development, following a "network expansion" logic.
  • Early Focus on L2 Expansion: Through technologies like Rollups to reduce transaction costs and increase throughput, rapidly aggregating ecosystem applications like DeFi, NFTs, and user base (referencing Alipay and WeChat's internet thinking of "traffic first, then monetization");
  • Undertaking Large-Scale Settlement in Later Stages: After the mainnet's TPS (transactions per second) is improved, gradually undertaking large-scale settlement needs such as payments and asset transactions, forming a positive cycle of "user growth → ecosystem prosperity → settlement capability upgrade."

Value Anchoring: TVL-Driven Valuation System

The lower limit of ETH's valuation is determined by the ecosystem's Total Value Locked (TVL), which continuously rises with ecosystem expansion.
  • Ecosystem Stickiness Brings Profit Space: After users form usage habits due to applications, the platform can achieve "lubrication" (profits) by slightly increasing fees, and ecosystem prosperity in turn pushes up TVL, solidifying ETH's intrinsic value;
  • New Trends Amplify Value Boundaries: Scenarios like US stock tokenization and RWA (Real World Assets on-chain, such as real estate and bonds) directly increase ecosystem TVL and fee throughput. According to estimates over a 30-year horizon, if stablecoin size reaches $3 trillion and RWA reaches $20 trillion, ETH's minimum market capitalization could correspond to a $3 trillion scale.

Currency Attribute Evolution: From Payment Tool to "Currency Settlement Layer"

Currency usage scenarios always flow to areas with the largest transaction volume, and ETH's ultimate value lies in becoming a "currency settlement layer."
  • Payment System vs. Monetary System: If ETH is only used as a payment tool, the market capitalization is benchmarked against SWIFT (lower valuation limit); if its ecosystem corresponds to the global monetary system (covering all scenarios like payments, assets, and credit), there is no upper limit to the value space;
  • Granular Needs in the AI Era: AI-driven small-value fast settlements (such as computing power transactions and cross-domain micro-payments) require stablecoins (stable prices and efficient execution), and ETH, as the underlying public chain, supports stablecoin issuance, cross-chain settlements, and complex financial logic, becoming the "infrastructure for currency automation."

Beyond Payments: Building an All-End Financial Ecosystem

ETH's value far exceeds "payments" but includes the all-end financial infrastructure of asset issuance, banking services, and commercial functions.
  • Asset Issuance and Trading: Supporting US stock tokenization and RWA (Real World Assets on-chain), achieving standardized issuance, on-chain trading, and clearing of assets through smart contracts, breaking traditional intermediary barriers;
  • Bank-Level Financial Services:
    • Deposit: Users can deposit ETH or stablecoins into DeFi protocols (such as Aave) to earn interest (decentralized "deposit");
    • Lending: Collateralizing ETH can quickly obtain loans (such as DAI issued by MakerDAO) without bank audits, and interest rates are adjusted in real-time by algorithms;
    • Exchange Functions: Supporting decentralized exchanges (DEX) and NFT platforms to achieve free trading and circulation of assets;
  • Commercial Ecosystem Empowerment:
    • Payment Settlement: Global merchants can accept ETH/stablecoin payments, cross-border payments arrive in seconds, and the cost is only 1/10 of traditional SWIFT;
    • Supply Chain Finance: Smart contracts automatically complete account verification and financing disbursement (such as automatic triggering of "cash on delivery" for trade finance);
    • Business Automation: Supporting companies to build decentralized markets (such as digital artwork trading platforms) to achieve full-chain automation of "issuance - trading - settlement."

Open Ecosystem: ETH's Long-Term Competitive Moat

ETH's "openness" is the core barrier that distinguishes it from BTC (closed system, focusing on value storage).
  • Developer-Friendly: Supporting programming languages like Solidity, any developer can freely build applications (from finance to games, from social networking to the Internet of Things);
  • Borderless Scenarios: Embracing emerging trends like AI and RWA, allowing traditional financial assets (such as stocks and bonds) and emerging digital assets (such as AI computing power and data) to flow on-chain;
  • Programmable Financial Logic: Through smart contracts, financial transactions and business logic can be executed "programmatically" (such as automatic dividends and automatic clearing), completely breaking the geographical, temporal, and intermediary restrictions of traditional finance.

Future Prospects: From "Financial Operating System" to "Global Settlement Layer"

ETH's development logic is essentially an upgrade from a "payment network" to a "global financial operating system."
  • Short-Term: Reduce transaction costs through L2 expansion, and aggregate users and the ecosystem (referencing Amazon's logic of "scale first, then profit");
  • Medium-Term: Promote US stock tokenization and RWA landing, expanding TVL (Total Value Locked) and application scenarios;
  • Long-Term: Become the bottom layer for settling the global monetary system in the AI era, covering all scenarios of "payment + assets + finance + commerce", and releasing unlimited value space.

Conclusion

ETH's ultimate ambition is to become the "Windows of finance" - when currency needs automated, globalized, and intelligent settlement, its open ecosystem's comprehensive functions will reshape the global financial ecosystem, and the value space will continue to open up with ecosystem expansion.


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