The Forgotten Phase: Crypto Market Stuck Between Cycles?

Are We in a Bull or Bear Market? The Crypto Market's 2025 Conundrum

As 2025 draws to a close, traders and analysts in the cryptocurrency market find themselves in a perplexing situation: are we in a bull or bear market? The current market seems to defy simple categorization. Prices haven't soared parabolically like in 2021, but they also haven't reached the despairing lows characteristic of true bear markets.

Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello suggests that we might be in the "forgotten chapter" of the cycle. This quiet period mirrors the July-September 2019 timeframe when the market consolidated alongside the Federal Reserve's end to quantitative tightening, resulting in a strange period of stasis before the next big move.

The Ghost of 2019 Returns

In July 2019, the Federal Reserve formally announced the end of quantitative tightening, a significant shift in global liquidity. By September, monetary tightening officially stopped, paving the way for a subsequent modest rally that culminated in the market explosion of 2020-2021. History appears to be repeating itself, with the Federal Reserve once again announcing an end to quantitative tightening in December 2025.

"We are neither at the peak of a bull market nor at the bottom of a bear market, but in a gray area in between," Gambardello states. This "in-between state" is often overlooked in the news but may be the crucial phase for a cycle reset.

In 2019, Bitcoin's risk score hovered around 42, remarkably close to the 43 of today. Despite differing prices, market sentiment displays a similar state of uncertainty.

Crypto Market Risk Indicators and the Value of Patience

"If you believe that the end of QT will bring a liquidity boost, consider gradual accumulation on any dips before December 2025," Gambardello advises. His AI-powered system, called "Zero", suggests identifying risk zones rather than chasing market momentum.

Glassnode data supports a similar pattern. During medium-term consolidation periods, the supply held by long-term holders typically increases as speculative traders exit. In 2019, Bitcoin long-term holders accounted for over 64% of the circulating supply; in 2025, the numbers are approaching the same levels. Patience, it seems, is the quiet investor’s secret weapon.

What Are the Charts Telling Us?

On Ethereum's weekly chart, a strikingly similar movement is unfolding. In July 2019, shortly after the end of QT, Ethereum tested its 20-week moving average, bounced, and then retested before truly recovering months later. This summer, the same 20-50 week moving average crossover occurred once again.

Gambardello points out that the signal to watch for is whether Ethereum can break through the 20-week moving average. This would be a short-term confirmation of whether the market will repeat the 2019 move. Otherwise, a temporary dip in the total market cap to the $3 trillion range (compared to the current $3.6 trillion) could reproduce the scenario: a dip enough to scare retail traders, but not enough to end the uptrend.

Different Decade, Same Market Psychology

Of course, 2025 is not a carbon copy of 2019. Crypto news headlines are different, and the macro stage has shifted significantly. A crypto-friendly US administration has taken office. Laws like the "Clarity Act" and "GENIUS Act" have essentially ended the regulatory uncertainty that used to keep investors up at night. Ethereum ETFs have begun trading. Stablecoin issuers are regulated. BlackRock now sits atop $25 billion in crypto ETF assets. This institutional power won’t disappear overnight.

What we are witnessing may not be another bull or bear market, but something more subtle: a transitional phase within a larger monetary climate system. The Fed's liquidity pivot, a new chairman taking office no later than May, and the normalization of regulation might collectively make 2025 a quiet period of preparation before the next surge. Gambardello doesn't believe we are entering a bear market, but rather going through an “annoying consolidation phase.” Yes, it’s annoying. But perhaps it’s necessary. If the 2019 crypto market taught us anything, it’s that boredom is often the prelude to a breakout.