Bitcoin's Technicals: A Bear Market on the Horizon?

Long-term technical trend indicators for Bitcoin have shifted bearish, leading some analysts to believe the bull market may be concluding. Crypto analyst 'Crypto₿irb' informed his 700,000 X followers on Thursday that, "From a technical standpoint, the bull market is over."

Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a “persistent trend shift, confirmed by price percentage traveled, volume spikes, above-average volatility, time spent below the 200-day trend, and worsened breadth,” he stated, predicting declines through 2026.

Key Bearish Indicators

The analysis highlighted a downturn in the 200-day trend, a visual tool utilized by analysts to connect specific points and evaluate trend strength or potential breakouts. Furthermore, the 200-day moving average, a distinct indicator that calculates the average price of BTC over the preceding 200 days, turned downwards in mid-November, triggering a “death cross” as it fell below the shorter-term 50-day moving average. These indicators are closely monitored as potential long-term support levels and signals for both bullish and bearish market phases.

Conflicting Perspectives on Market Direction

Calls for a Bitcoin bear market are gaining traction. Markus Thielen from 10x Research told Cointelegraph, “There is no debate, Bitcoin is in a bear market,” characterizing the current situation as “a bear market reversal rally.” However, Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer of Apollo Capital, offered a different perspective, stating that while the buying pressure from digital asset treasuries (DATs) observed in the first half of the year has subsided, this "doesn’t mean we are in a bear market." He added, “The direction going forward will be determined by risk assets in general, and being selective as an investor will be more important than ever.”

Short-Term Optimism for Bitcoin Bulls

Crypto analyst ‘Skew’ presented a more optimistic short-term outlook on Thursday, stating that things are “looking a lot more constructive here for the bulls,” based on a four-hour chart time frame. “Momentum is toward the upside if buyers and the market can muster strength from here.” He cautioned that falling back below $88,000 “would be a sign of weakness and failed momentum to drive higher,” and identified the $90,000 to $92,000 range as an “initial area for the market to fight over structural trend.”

BTC briefly approached $92,000 on Coinbase during early trading on Thursday morning before retracing to $91,200 at the time of publication.


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